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A genuine MVP race is a rare treat. These days an MVP race is much like a feature film starring Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s only happening about every 3-5 years, but it’s guaranteed to be awesome, and whilst it’s happening you often find yourself wondering “How many more of these will we be fortunate enough to see?” As the final stretch of the 2024-25 NBA season approaches, professional NBA media personnel like to spend their time penciling in their votes for the end-of-season individual and team awards. I, not a professional, am no different and at some point over the coming weeks will be doing the exact same. But before I got to all that, I wanted first to discuss this season’s main attraction – the aforementioned MVP race. Often it’s clear who the eventual winner will be at this point during the season i.e. Shaq (2000), Lebron (2010), and Curry (2016). Occasionally though, we’re lucky enough to have a season like this one – a season where multiple players are head and shoulders above the rest of the competition. Previous MVP races have featured some of the game’s greatest players, races such as Duncan and Kidd in ’02-’03, Malone and Jordan in ’96-’97, and Nash and Shaq in ’04’-’05 come to mind. This year is no different. This year it’s Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The beauty of this season’s MVP race is that there is a serious case for either of the two players. Usually, you know who is going to win at this point during the season yet the media will attempt to create the narrative of the two-horse race – Westbrook and Harden in ’16-’17 and Giannis and LeBron in ’19-’20. But this year’s different as both players have a serious case to be made.

A key factor in this year’s race is that once again the winner will not be from America. Up until 2018 this had only happened four times in NBA history; Dirk (Germany) in ’07, Nash (Canada) in ’06 and ’05, and Hakeem (Nigeria) in ’94. Now this is debatable as you could say Hakeem played for America, and on the other hand, you could say Tim Duncan is from the Virgin Islands – which would bring the total up to six MVPs. Different websites say different things regarding foreign MVP winners. Also, I’m not a foreign affairs minister so I don’t know what’s what. What I do know however, is that since 2018, the past six MVPs have all gone to players born outside the United States; Giannis (Greece) in ’19 and ’20, Jokic (Serbia) in ’21, ’22, and ’24, and Embiid (Cameroon) in ’23. Even last year, the top three vote-getters were all foreign (Jokic, Shai, and Luka).

This year will be the seventh year in a row non-U.S. player wins the MVP. Plus with guys like Giannis, Jokic, and Shai not slowing down, and guys like Luka and Wemby waiting in the wings, that streak is seemingly only going to increase. I wanted to touch on this subject as I think it’s great for the game. NBA commissioner Adam Silver has often discussed how he hopes to globalize the NBA, and having these types of players is the perfect recipe to do so.

The big man from Serbia is going for his fourth MVP. Here’s the incredibly short list of players with four-plus career MVPs; LeBron James (4), Wilt Chamberlain (4), Bill Russell (5), Michael Jordan (5), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6). That is it. Those are four of the greatest ten/twelve players to ever play the game (depending on where you rank Wilt). If Jokic wins he’ll be a part of this god-like group. It’s the tier above the tier of the greatest players to play the game (LeBron, Russell, MJ, and Kareem are all top 5). Now if Jokic joins this group he will be the outlier will all due respect. There’s one glaring issue with his resume in comparison to the other four – playoff success. Jokic – 1 finals appearance/1 title, LeBron – 10 finals appearances/4 titles, Wilt – 6 finals appearances/2 titles, MJ – 6 finals appearances/6 titles, and Kareem – 10 finals appearances/6 titles.

Now Jokic has time to add another ring or two to his collection, but if he’s unable to accomplish that then he will be the black sheep of the 4 MVP club. This also doesn’t mean that voters won’t vote for him because of this (actually who knows, some of these guys have strange vendettas – Perkins and Washburn to name a few) as LeBron won his fourth MVP in 2013 when he had just 3 finals appearances and 1 title.

Hypotheticals aside, let’s focus on why Nikola Jokic has a serious case for his fourth MVP. First of all, he’s on pace to become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double across an entire season – potentially joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. Now over the past 8 years or so the triple-double has lost some of its “aura” as they are no longer as rare as they once were thanks to players such as Westbrook, Jokic, Luka, LeBron, and Harden. Having said that, Jokic is doing it with incredible efficiency, averaging 29/13/10 on 57/41/80 shooting splits. Yes, a center is averaging a damn near 30-point triple-double whilst shooting 41% from downtown on 2 threes a game – welcome to today’s NBA ladies and gentlemen. The advanced stats heavily back The Joker up too, his win shares per 48 minutes is currently at .305 (the league average is .100) and his true shooting percentage is a whopping 66%. Now the other night Jokic had one of the greatest games in NBA history, dropping 31 points, 21 rebounds, and 22 assists in an overtime win versus the Phoenix Suns. The first 30/20/20 game. Ever. He is so good and so efficient that I truly advise fans to watch him play any chance they get because I guarantee you we will never see another Jokic. A guy who has the offensive dominance of Wilt, yet the unselfishness of Duncan, and the passing IQ of Magic, all whilst being seven foot! Never to be replicated.

Despite all the good, there are three main reasons why SGA is the odds-on favourite over Jokic. The team defence is a huge factor as Denver is middle of the pack in most statistics – even bottom 10 in points in the paint per game and defensive rating. Joker’s team currently has 15 fewer wins than Shai’s and only twice in the last 45 years has a player won MVP without being a top 3 seed (the Nuggets are two losses away from slipping to fifth). And the third and final reason is voter fatigue. Voter fatigue is a real phenomenon. You’re really telling me that LeBron has only been the best player in the league 4 times? Get lost. Trust me, in the next 15 years we’ll see Wemby lose about 4/5 DPOYs to voter fatigue. Having said all this, the case for Jokic is still strong. He is truly having one of the most dominant and efficient offensive seasons of all time, has a not-so-great Nuggets team sitting in third place, and has revitalized the career of Russell Westbrook – and as a fan of Brodie that alone is MVP worthy.

On the other hand, we have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The guard from Ontario, Canada has the potential to join future Hall of Famers Kevin Durant (2014) and Russell Westbrook (2017) as the only members of the Thunder to win the MVP. Furthermore, he can also join Steve Nash (2005, 2006) as the only Canadian to win. I heard somewhere that some fans call him “The Salamander” which is a fitting name to how he plays. The way he slithers through contact in the paint, still managing to get his shot off is reptilianesque. Now some people have a problem with the way he “hunts for contact”, but I personally don’t. I lived through James Harden in the late 2010s – this is nothing in comparison. Having said that, you can definitely tell Shai played under the leadership of the greatest rule-bender of his generation, Chris Paul.

Enough foul talk, let’s take a look at some of the remarkable things Shai is doing on the court this year. He has the Thunder atop the Western Conference with the best record in the league currently sitting at 60-12. He’s also gotten them here without their best defensive player Chet Holmgren for the most part. Holmgren has missed 47 games so far this year – the majority of that due to a pelvic fracture he sustained against the Golden State Warriors back in November. Moreover, the Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They currently have the best defensive team rating (106.2), whilst allowing the fewest points in the paint per game (42.7), and having the most team steals per game (10.4). Is Shai the main reason for this? Of course not. These are team stats, and although guys like Chet, Hartenstein, Dort, and Caruso often do most of the heavy lifting, Shai is an underrated contributing factor as he’s averaging 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Yet thanks to teammates like Dort and Caruso doing most of the defensive work against the opposition’s best guards, Shai is allowed to reserve his energy for where he shines brightest – on offense. The Canadian is averaging 33/5/6 on 52/37/90 shooting splits. Truly insane numbers. Much like Jokic, the advanced stats back him up too – SGA’s win shared per 48 is .311 (higher than Jokic’s) and his true shooting is 64%. And for those who want to complain about his free throw shooting numbers, if you took away all players’ points from free throws, he would still lead the league in scoring.

The best part about watching Shai on offense is that it truly feels like he can get a bucket on any possession, that no matter what defence you throw at him, he’s getting the shot off he wants – whether it’s a stepback three or splitting two defenders and finishing tough at the rim. Just last night he became just the fourth player to score 20+ points in 65 straight games in a regular season; joining Wilt, MJ, and Oscar Robertson – elite company. Whether it’s because of the best record in the league, the unbelievable defensive team record, or the otherworldly offensive numbers that rival some of the greatest guard seasons of all time, Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has one incredible argument for his first career MVP.

I still wanted to give you my personal pick. Jokic is the better overall player, yet if I was a betting man I would put money on SGA winning. With this being said, if I was given a ballot from the NBA, with all the things that I discussed above whirling through my head – I would select Nikola Jokic purely because without him, the Nuggets are hanging out with the likes of Sacramento and Phoenix down near the 10 seed. But when SGA most likely wins, I will be very happy for him.

Who would you choose for the 2024-25 MVP?