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Screw the ratings. Screw the small market teams talk. We’re in store for one heck of a finals. The Oklahoma City have been so assertive this year (currently 80–18 on the season, including 29–1 against the East) that they make this incredible Indiana team seem like David in comparison to their Goliathesque stature and dominance.

Many people have been writing off the Pacers team, and they may be right in doing so. However, I’m high on Rick Carlisle’s team and think they can compete with the Thunder who are on the brink of a genuine historic season. In this piece, I want to discuss how I think each team will approach their respective matchup and what their strengths and weaknesses are followed by my prediction for this 7-game series. Firstly though, I want to quickly talk about what’s on the line for each team and the historic implications at play.

Historical Implications:

Historically the 4 seed has played the 1 seed in the NBA finals just twice before this year. Both matchups were the Lakers vs Celtics. 1969 in which the 4 seeded Celtics won in Bill Russell’s last game. The series went to seven games and can be remembered by mostly two things; Jerry West winning the first ever Finals MVP (the only occasion to date where the fMVP was won by the player on the losing team) and the Lakers front office/owners putting balloons in the ceiling that were to be unveiled and let down when the Lakers finally won their first championship in Los Angeles. Bill Russell had other plans.

The other matchup also went to seven games. This was the famous 2010 finals where Kobe got his revenge on Boston whilst finally passing Shaq in total rings, where Ron Artest hit that three-pointer, and where Pau Gasol absolutely bullied the Celtic’s big men on the glass all series long, concluding with him grabbing 18 rebounds in game 7. As a matter of fact, Rajon Rondo was the Celtic’s best rebounder that entire series with just 6 rebounds a game. So does this mean we’re in for a seven-game series? I mean it’s been nine years since the previous one in a finals so we’re kind of due. However, I’d be pleasantly surprised. There is one final piece of NBA history not in Indiana’s favour; in the history of the league only twice has a team seeded lower than third won the championship — the aforementioned ’69 Celtics, and the ’95 Rockets. However, this Pacers team is a little ’95 Rockety, catching fire before the playoffs whilst taking down big stars as the underdogs. Indiana will have to play almost perfectly to join Boston and Houston.

Now if OKC were able to take down the Pacers and SGA were to win fMVP (the most probable outcome in the event of a Thunder win), then the Canadian guard would join an elusive club with only nine current members. That club is players to win regular season MVP and Finals MVP in the same year. The club currently consists of Kareem, Moses Malone, Bird (twice), Magic, MJ (four times), Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, and LeBron (twice). I mean that is an incredibly elite list. Every player on there is in the upper echelon of all-time greats. If SGA were able to achieve this feat, we could be witnessing the start of something incredible. Not to mention, SGA also pocketed the scoring title this year too.

One final historical aspect relates to one of the most underrated head coaches of all time, perhaps in NBA history, Rick Carlisle. Now Carlisle was in some ways snubbed from the NBA’s 15 greatest head coaches list that came out during the ‘NBA 75’ year. Doc Rivers made it in case anyone was wondering how valid it is. I wish I was kidding. Anyway, Carlisle currently has 993 career wins as a head coach (11th all-time) with 83 playoff wins (10th all-time) along with the 2011 Championship win with the Dallas Mavericks. Now if Carlisle can add to his resume with one more title (a title that would rival his other one in terms of unpredictability and underdog power) whilst padding even more wins and moving up the all-time lists, I think he will have a serious case for top 12/15 coach of all time. This potential second championship would move him into a completely different tier.

The Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Thunder are the odds-on favourite to win this matchup, as they should be. They’re on the brink of historic dominance and are flying. They should wrap this championship up and I think they will, however, it will be more difficult than most people think.

The key to winning this round will be to stop Indiana’s fast-flowing offense. Now the Pacers have the best transition offense in the league, whereas the Thunder have the best transition defense in the league. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. I love it. It will be key for OKC to track back quickly and pick up their defensive matchups on the fly whilst transitioning, something they’ve been great at all year. What’s more crucial is to slow down Indiana. The key to this will be getting the ball out of Haliburton’s hands early in the offense, resulting in someone else initiating the plays for the Pacers. I expect Dort to be the one on Haliburton with the likes of Wiggins and Caruso also taking some of the matchup. This could be hell for Haliburton who has struggled in the two games he played in this year against the Thunder.

The Indiana Pacers:

There’s a strange phenomenon circulating through the air of sports lately. For example, Rory McIlroy finally won The Masters after 14 years of trying, Harry Kane won his first trophy, Tottenham Hotspur won their first in 17 years, PSG won their first UCL, and Crystal Palace won their first ever trophy. Those are just off of the top of my head. That trophy curse bug is floating around and perhaps Indiana can catch it and continue the tradition. Now I’m not counting OKC for this because you know the NBA will count that damn ’79 Supersonics one, much like how the Laker’s count the Minneapolis five.

I digress. Now I expect Indiana to have a hard time on defence. Running zone won’t work too well as it seems OKC has started to be able to really dissect zone defence throughout these playoffs. For example, in game 7 versus the Nuggets this year, they completely picked Denver’s zone defence apart with backdoor and baseline cuts. What’s more is I can see OKC matchup hunting onto Haliburton when their offence is struggling, much like the Celtics did against Luka in last years’ finals. Truthfully I think Haliburton could be in for a rough ride during this series as he will be hunted on defence and will be the main target on offence. I really hope he can overcome all of it, but it will be extremely difficult. Indiana’s other guys will also face problems as the big men like Siakam and Turner will face different matchups and looks all throughout the series. I expect Chet and Hartenstein to be doing most of the defence (occasionally switching with each other) with even some Caruso and J-Dub being thrown into the mix. To combat this, Indiana is going to have to get into their offence quick, push the pace, and make quick adjustments on the fly.

All in all, I’m really looking forward to this series and I can’t wait to see what both teams’ head coaches have under their sleeves. Truly two of the best.

Although I’ll be rooting for the Pacers most likely, and I hope they can split the first two games and give us a great series, my basketball brain has to pick the sensible choice.

All in all, I’m really looking forward to this series and I can’t wait to see what both teams’ head coaches have under their sleeves. Truly two of the best.

Although I’ll be rooting for the Pacers most likely, and I hope they can at least split the first two games and give us a great series, my basketball brain has to pick the sensible choice.

My Prediction: Thunder in 6