The NBA playoffs are here! Thank God. Now this maybe a controversial take, but I look forward to round 1 more than any other round. All day Saturday and Sunday we have an NBA playoff game on; from 10am PT to 8pm PT. Sorry family and sorry responsibilities.
We have some great matchups to start this playoff run and yesterday I released my Eastern conference predictions. Now with the final 8-seed matchup complete between Golden State and Phoenix, I can release my NBA playoffs round 1 predictions for the Western conference.
Not to brag, but last year I went 6/8 on my first round predictions including nailing the amount of games the winner would win in on 5/6 predictions. Not bad. We’ll see how I eventually fair this year.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Phoenix Suns
This might be a hot take; but I don’t think OKC are as good and as unbeatable as a lot of NBA fans think. They’re deep, they beat up on teams, their team defence is elite, and they have a top-2 player in the league. All that is true. However, in a 7-game series, I think they are definitely beatable. Last year they almost didn’t get it done – playing two game 7’s against Denver and Indiana. And I don’t think the Thunder are as good as they were last year. Still great, but 95% of what they were last year. Plus the Nuggets, Spurs, Celtics, and Knicks are all significantly better than they were this time last year. With all that said, I think they will of course get past Phoenix – and probably with ease. Phoenix are nice – definite overachievers this season – and I think the shooting/scoring prowess of Green and Booker can cause some problems, but ultimately nothing guys like Wallace, Dort, Caruso, and Holmgren can’t handle. I’m really looking forward to Dillon Brooks getting into it with some of the chippier OKC guys.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Portland Trailblazers
Portland are a great team and much like Phoenix, they have been terrific overachievers this season. Despite that, this matchup is the most lobsided one in the West. The team with the worst offensive rating of all playoff teams versus the team with the 3rd best defensive rating across the season. When Portland games get close, they heavily rely on Deni Avdija in the clutch moments where he often attacks the paint, driving right. Something that will be very tough to do against the 7’4″ Victor Wembanyama. Speaking of Wemby, I’m really looking forward to how me plays against another overly big body in Donovan Clingan.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
My favourite first round matchup across both conferences. Nuggets/Wolves round 3. Where could this rank among all-time trilogies? Maybe not quite ‘Back to the Future’ or ‘The Godfather’, but more Sam Raimi’s ‘Spider-Man’. Great stuff either way. Now. Spoiler alert. I think this is Denver’s year. Truly. I just think they have gotten hot at the perfect moment. They enter the playoffs with a 12-game win streak, Aaron Gordon is fully healthy, and Cameron Johnson is finally starting to look comfortable playing in this offence. Speaking of Johnson, he will be the X-Factor for the Nuggets playoff run. There will be close games where Jokic will be doubled in the clutch – leaving Cam Johnson wide open – with the responsibility to knock down the shot. As a Nets fan, I’m a huge fan of his, and I believe, with the way he’s been playing lately, that he will deliver. Going over to Minnesota, they’re just not the team they have been the past two years where they made the Western conference Finals in both seasons. Despite their high EFG%, their offensive rating is relatively low and they look like a team who can lose to anyone.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets
The toughest matchup to call. This could go anywhere from Rockets in 5 to Lakers in 7. It’s so tough to correctly predict a series when you have star players missing with a chance of them possibly returning. If Luka and/or Reaves don’t return, then the Lakers don’t stand a chance. However, if one of them can return in Game 4/5 with the Lakers down 2-1 or tied 2-2, then a Lakers series win is definitely possible. With all that said, I’d be shocked to see either one of them return. Look at James Harden (a similar player to Doncic) in 2021 when he rushed back against the Bucks with the same injury as Luka, he was nothing more than a decoy and it actually ended up delaying his rehab over the summer. If I’m the Lakers, there’s no chance I’m rushing him back, especially when Los Angeles’ ceiling is a second round exit. This is why I’m leaning Rockets – despite their 4th quarter clogged offence. I do think the Lakers will steal some close games and I do think LeBron will roll back the years to 2018 and put the team on his back. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Prediction: Rockets in 6
—Let me know your predictions for the Western conference first round matchups.
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